The Thesis
Rethinking ownership and debt in a world of accelerating AI.
Four claims. If you accept them, everything else about how Sincerity is built follows.
Claim one
Almost all administrative work can now be automated.
Not eventually. Now.
The last twenty-four months changed the shape of the problem. Coding agents and agentic work platforms made building software cheap enough that the economics of custom automation inverted: it is now frequently cheaper to build the exact tool a business needs than to buy a generic one and bend the business around it.
The catch is that wrangling those agents into something a company can depend on is a genuinely specialised skill — part engineering, part consulting, part sitting quietly at somebody's desk watching how the work is really done. Very few people have it. That scarcity, not the technology, is the binding constraint.
Claim two
This will become the main lever in private equity.
Financial engineering is asymptoting. Multiple arbitrage and leverage are crowded trades, and operational improvement has been carrying a growing share of returns for a decade. AI hypercharges exactly that lever — and private equity, with control and a clock, is positioned to capitalise on it faster than anyone else.
Like spreadsheets and personal computers before it, this will produce winners and losers strictly by adoption. The difference this time is how compressed the window is.
Claim three
Selling software into these companies does not capture the value.
We know because we tried. In our own natural experiment the automation worked — quoting across roughly twenty carrier portals at a forty-person brokerage, end to end, no human re-keying. The technical result was unambiguous. The cost realisation stalled anyway, because the decision to stop doing the work the old way is an ownership decision, and no vendor gets to make it.
The corollary is uncomfortable for software people: the software layer is thin and getting thinner. What actually compounds is capital, relationships, and a bench of operators who have been on a real floor. So we built the firm around those three things instead.
Claim four
Therefore financing has to change too.
If the value now turns on an operational transformation, then underwriting has to turn on it as well. Lenders do not have that skill, so they size to trailing EBITDA and leave the difference to the equity. That gap is a mispricing, and it is the one Sincerity is built to trade.
We size the junior tranche to pro forma EBITDA after a scoped transformation, because we can diligence the automation surface bottom-up and because we control the party doing the work. That is a credit product nobody else can write, for a reason that has nothing to do with the cost of capital.
The loop
Financing enables transformation; transformation justifies the financing.
More financing
A larger, cheaper junior tranche lets the buyer win the deal, shrink the equity cheque, and pay for a deeper transformation than the budget would otherwise allow.
More value creation
Cost comes out of administration and capacity goes into the top line. Producers get more profitable, which in turn supports larger seller notes and better economics for the people who stay.
Faster proof
Transformations land inside an eighteen-to-twenty-four-month window, which means the value is visible well before the hold period is up.
Better exits, better data
Documented transformation is underwritable by the next buyer — and every engagement sharpens the model we use to size the next one.
Where we start
Insurance distribution, first.
Fragmented
Thousands of independent retail brokerages, wholesalers and MGAs, most of them founder-led and facing succession at the same time.
Manual
Quoting across dozens of carrier portals, submissions, certificates, renewals, claims support — nearly all of it typed by a person into a screen that will not talk to the next screen.
Underlevered
Lower-middle-market deals and MGAs get less senior leverage than their earnings deserve, which is exactly where a transformation-sized junior tranche does the most work.